Edmonton International Article (EDM JOURNAL)
Paula Simons
The Edmonton Journal
Tuesday, August 24, 2004
With all the flap of late over the future of the City Centre Airport, it's been easy to overlook the good news developing at the Edmonton International.
When the airport unveiled its completed $265-million expansion last fall, there were those who feared the big new terminal might turn out to be a big white elephant.
But so far, the news is good.
In the first place, the new southeast terminal, with its Central Hall, is downright beautiful -- for an airport terminal, at least -- graced with lots of natural daylight, a grand observation desk, a piano bar, and some remarkable public art, including a little indoor river-cum-waterfall installation, where bored kids can dangle their fingers. The colourful shop-fronts and tile mosaics are cleverly designed to promote the city's major cultural festivals. There are even some decent full-service restaurants.
Passenger business at the International Airport is up 6.5 per cent over this time last year. International traffic, primarily to and from the United States, is up 15 per cent. And the airport is closing in on a new "personal best."
Air travel, worldwide, hit a dreadful slump after the horrors of Sept. 11, 2001. Nonetheless, that year the Edmonton International Airport served about 4 million passengers, a record. After the terrorist attacks, travel fell off dramatically, particularly in North America.
But three years later, despite continued political tensions, airline business woes and high fuel prices, the International has regained all the business it lost after 9/11, and then some. For 2004, the airport is on track to serve 4.15 million passengers. That's up from 1.6 million in the mid-1990s, before airport consolidation.
"We're experiencing very robust growth," says Scott Clements, president and CEO of Edmonton Airports. "Our rate of growth has surpassed that of Vancouver and Calgary."
Don't misunderstand. Calgary is still Alberta's busiest airport, serving more than twice as many passengers as the Edmonton International. Given its number of head offices and Calgary's proximity to Banff, Kananaskis and Lake Louise, and our own seeming inability to end the City Centre consolidation debate, Edmonton will likely never catch up. We can't change history, or geography.
But with northern Alberta and the Northwest Territories booming, with Edmonton starting to flex its economic muscle, our beautiful new airport terminal is busier than expected.
By October, our airport will be connected with direct scheduled flights to eight American hubs: Chicago, Minneapolis, Seattle, Houston, Denver, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix. The airport has also been landing more occasional charters, from places such as Mexico and Germany. Next summer, it will welcome its first direct Qantas charters from Australia.
Edmonton Airports is now working hard, in partnership with Calgary, to win Alberta some direct flights from Japan, bringing tourists here without a stop in Vancouver.
Already, airport staff are reconfiguring the check-in gates to make more room for more international flights. The airport is also going full-speed ahead with a major $17-million renovation to the 40-year-old northwest terminal, to accommodate WestJet's growing operations, and the regional airlines that serve the north.
The next big project in the airport's sights is a hotel.
"The business case is there," says Scott Clements. "The demand for a hotel has intensified."
Last year, Edmonton Airports was in negotiation with Gibralt Capital Corp. of Vancouver to build a luxury hotel and casino. But that deal fell through when the group failed to win a provincial casino licence.
Now, the airport is the middle of negotiations with a major hotel chain to build a 150-room, eight-storey hotel at the northwest end of the airport. The hotel company would lease the land and pay for the construction costs.
If all goes well, construction could start later this year, or early next, and the hotel could open by the end of next year.
Edmonton Airports hopes for a three- or three-and-a-half-star hotel, complete with business facilities such as board rooms and meeting halls for conferences and meetings, and with tourist amenities such as a pool, gym, and weight room. The planned hotel would be connected to the main terminal building with an enclosed walkway, allowing overnight guests to transfer from their beds to their planes without putting on a coat.
Let's hope the deal goes through this time. By 2015, the airport hopes to be serving 5.5 million passengers a year. We'll need a good hotel, not just for those projected passengers, but to attract them, to help build the international business we need to attract more international flights.
Yes, building what effectively amounts to a new airport in a post-9/11 world was a big and costly gamble. But right now, with our economy blossoming, with our city at the one-million mark, it looks like we might have gambled and won.
...
Better study your 'catchement areas' again. Vancouver is still only about 2 million.
Would you please provide a link to a site that reports Edmonton and Calgary have populations over 1 million? I checked last year on Statscan and Calgary was < 900K and Edmonton < 800K (even with their huge city limits). Don't quote 'Calgary and area' , it is not representative.
Doesn't a scheduled service require the diversified interests of Business, local/expat community, and tourism to dampen volatility effects? Alberta barely has 1 element of these 3 pillars. Doesn't Vancouver/Toronto support daily services with multiple carriers as a result of all 3.
Calgary is a wonderful city (I have been there) but until it becomes more than the regional provincial centre it currently is, (like YXY) it will live of the avails of charters to Japan.
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Simple solution for complainers is move to YYC.
Or Palm Springs? :D
Looks like I mixed up the city rates with the provincial rate. :o
Of course, this average includes those huge gains in the late nineties when there was some domestic migration.
Question. Is this rate certain to continue as the economy improves in other regions and the migrants decide to return home rather than stay "out west"?
I suspect that the rate of growth is higher now than in the nineties.
How likely is it than an airline would agreed to a flight to YEG via YYC? Not that I would mind sharing such a flight with my YYC cousins, but since the demise of C3 I can't think of another charter that is doing something similiar on a regular basis. I say regular basis because I noticed some fall flights YEG-CUN that do stop on route in YYC both o/b & i/b.
I bet you that "the elevator that never goes down" in fact will. It always does.
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Anyway, how does this justify non stop Japan services from Alberta?
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Does anyone know how CP's Calgary-Tokyo service back in the mid-late 90's did load/revenue wise? That could be a partial indicator whether we could support some sort of scheduled service although things have changed a lot since then (alliances have popped up, meaning connecting through hubs, costs are way up, etc)
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They codeshare with AC. LH runs daily FRA-YVR, AC does FRA-YYC.
http://www.calgary.ca/DocGallery/BU/cityclerks/city.pdf
Ok, so this is from a Civic census. I observe the growth rate has flattened somewhat and moving toward net equilibium and negative growth territory soon (check the cycle). At this rate, it might still take Calgary 10 years or more to punch through 1 million (if it ever does) where it might hover for years.
Be realistic, while Calgary is a great city, exactly what would sustain a scheduled non-stop Japan service? Banff? Stampede? Cultural exchanges?
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I recall that the Japanese market likes and wants to stop in Vancouver. A huge and thriving Japanese expatriate population in Vancouver that YEG and YYC will never have.
Don't the Japanese go to Alberta as they go to YZF for borealis, a mere side trip off a west coast package?
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There are not plenty of Albertans nor are there plenty of other Canadians trained to do this construction work. According to studies done by the heavy oil industry there will be severe shortages of craftsmen across Canada over the next several years and it will therefore require outsourcing labour to 3rd world countries.
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Nothing personal taken (white bread from YWG here), but I am still trying to re-construct the linkages in this thread. Jakpot what are you doing in Lyon, you should be working for AC YYC, no?
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Source:
http://www.calgary.ca/DocGallery/BU/cityclerks/city.pdf
I have my own study on-going.
Just try and get some skilled tradesmen to work on your home renovation project or in my nephews case, build a house. The biggest shortages are in the heavy construction skills, but try and get a good painter or flooring type, or someone who can actually cut a decent 45deg angle in a piece of wood. They are very hard to find.
Want to make a pile of money??? Bring your hammer and be a framer in Calgary, Edmonton, Red Deer, or Fort Mac.
So LH doesn't bother either?
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Jakpot what's the issue with Japan/Alberta flights?
What's the source I wonder? Please post.
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How many people from Toronto now live in Calgary :D ?
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Sorry. What was the question again? :D
That being said direct Asian flts out of either place is not going to make money.
I agree, what is the additional demand from these rural markets? Is it really significant?
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Once I flew (as a student) BLI-SEA-JNU-SKG just to get YXY. Was $200 cheaper even with 100Km drive to YXY (and 4 hours in JNU).
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Excuse my ignorance, so what is a catchment area?
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....and I was just beginning to like you. :p :p
BTW, FlyB being a relative newcomer to FT I'll mention that it's against Terms of Service to cut & paste whole articles. Rather just give the web address and the first paragraph.
Isn't it strange that Calgary's size and growth rate are such sensitive topics :rolleyes:? 6 pages already :confused: .
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Western Canadians are a sensitive lot , but you know that right?
What studies? I suggest there are lots of Canadian or NAFTA Americans willing to do this type of project construction work?
www.bechtel.com
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The issue about non-stop service with Japan had long been forgotten in this thread. Why bringing this back up?
My point too !
Well sure, one can charter anything anywhere for occasional service I suppose. YXY has direct flights Europe, but its not a scheduled service which is what it sounds like Alberta thinks its ready for from Japan.
The reality is that Calgary is still a small provincial Canadian city with a population of almost 900,000 people. Is there a critical mass for a profitable scheduled non stop service? The market says no.
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Point remains, I don't expect Calgary to stop growing any time soon.
Well, that is your opinion. Populations move in cycles and Calgary has done very well. Is it reasonable to assume it will continue without a disruption?
My opinion is that there is plenty of competition that will compete with Calgary.
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Well, I suppose this is a good question at this stage. Is there a problem with trying to generate an intellectual discussion on the topic?
I like to learn.
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Just an FYI, the total population of OR is 3.55 million vs AB which is 3.2 million. Source: StatsCan and US Census Bureau
Ok, take PDX. The metroplitan area is 1.7-2million, much larger than YYC or YEG. It's profile is larger, west coast, and is in the US.
http://www.pova.com/visitors/portland_profile.html
The market will decide if it can sustain the re-started service. Does this answer the question of what might sustain a non-stop Alberta service?
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I guess you're right. Then its seasonal, certainly not supported by anything other than tourism?
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Ok so the usual package tour touch many locations including Alberta. The point should be demonstrated as to whether Alberta is considered a destination by the Japanese market (which it does not appear to be).
Remember, Calgary is still a very small city. What North American cities population under 900,000 have direct flights to Japan anyway (don't say Richmond)?
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No relationship. Just answering to your comment about "LH not bothering."
The issue about non-stop service with Japan had long been forgotten in this thread. Why bringing this back up?
United Kingdom carriers are allowed:
From any point or points to be named by the United Kingdom
To any point or points in Canada
I would guess that BA is in every Canadian market it deems to be profitable?
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I doubt that. The bi-lateral between Canada and UK is very open.
United Kingdom carriers are allowed:
From any point or points to be named by the United Kingdom
To any point or points in Canada
Don't the Japanese go to Alberta as they go to YZF for borealis, a mere side trip off a west coast package?
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Actually the Japanese "package" tourists usually go yyz(niagara falls)- yyc(lake louise etc.)-yvr in about 6 days (not a typo) , or vice versa. For the really adventurous there are tours to see Anne's place in PEI and also the fall colours in the Quebec country side and boarding(snow) tours too. So Calgary is not a mere side trip for them but a concrete part of most of their Canadian itineraries!
LH doesn't; AC does the YYC-FRA route and LH just codeshares.
http://www12.statcan.ca/english/profil01/Details/details1.cfm?SEARCH=BEGINS&ID=1097&PSGC=48&SGC=4806016&DataType=1&LANG=E&Province=48&PlaceName=calgary&CMA=&CSDNAME=Calgary&A=&TypeNameE=City%20%2D%20Cit%E9&CMA=&CSDType=C
Hey, I used SEA and BLI all the time if the price was right. Is that part of the effect? Abbotsford has no routes (ie: YXX - NRT, YXX - LHR) unless one connects east.
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People have a hard time understanding that the net in-migration for Calgary and Edmonton runs between 30,000 and 40,000 a year.
Does anyone know how CP's Calgary-Tokyo service back in the mid-late 90's did load/revenue wise? ....
The flights were operated by CP just to protect slots in Narita that they could not use out of Vancouver and did not want to use out of Toronto. The flights actually operated YYZ-YYC-NRT. They did not do very well because of their short time in the market. The Japanese market needs a long advance promotion of a service and the market needs to see a long term performance before they imbrace something new. YYC-NRT did not last long enough, but with the advance promotion of the ANA charters, it might work this time. Tourist traffic on this route is not just seasonal, but is year round.
The article below will give you a further view about why Alberta will continue to grow.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040825.walta0825/BNStory/National
Sounds like we need another national energy program so the blue eyed sheiks will not run off with the national wealth :p :D
I'm sorry, but I miss your point with this article? Alberta grows the economy (good news) but does this mean net Asian immigration? There are plenty of Albertans (or Canadian) who can do this work?
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YXY has scheduled service to Frankfurt, Germany on Thomas Cook/Condor during the summer. It is not a charter, and is bookable on any public reservation system.
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http://www.edmonton.com/statistics/page.asp?page=79
"Net migration in the Edmonton CMA has moved from a position of out-migration totaling 4,000 persons in 1995 to positive in-migration of 8,100 in 2002. From 1997 through 2002 in-migration has averaged almost 8,200 persons per year.
The turn-around is attributable to growth in both inter-city migration - migration from other communities in Alberta - and inter-provincial migration - migration from other provinces. In 1995 approximately 3,500 more persons left the Edmonton CMA for other Alberta points. In 2002 the in-migration from other Alberta communities was almost 1,000 persons. Likewise, in 1995 approximately 5,600 more persons left the Edmonton CMA for other provinces. In 2002 the in-migration from other provinces was almost 5,000 persons."
Well the fact that people who still use the Muni don't pay the full user fees for that facility also adds to YEG user fees. I think that someone calculated that if the people who flew out of the Muni paid for its cost the user fee for each flight would be $55.00. :p
Simple solution for complainers is move to YYC.
Japan has a very diversified economy. Isn't the point that needs to be demonstrated is the demand for such a service? Does Calgary have the profile to support it?
With a cultural proximity to Europe, LH flies to Calgary 6 times a week and BA doesn't even bother. Why would JAL or ANA?
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There is also considerable "cultural proximity" with asia BTW. But I suspect it's not a big factor.
(AC stopped flying from YYZ to Italy. All attempts to fly yo BRU have failed. YYC-ZRH is gone.)
Ok good points. Cultural proximity (which is huge) drives business and Alberta doesn't have a critical mass with Asia (obviously). Unless Alberta can attract traffic with something the market demands, why should there be a non-stop service?
Calgary is a great city but what demands a non-stop service from Alberta to Japan? Is this an easy question to answer?
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With a cultural proximaty to Europe, LH flies to Calgary 6 times a week and BA doesn't even bother. Why would JAL or ANA?
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The daily service to FRA has everything to do with business except for some tourism. Little to do with "cultural proximity," which seldom is of much use to support an airline. Except in the old days when they used to have planes that were way too big, when they had large numbers of seats to be filled up with very low fares folks.
There is also considerable "cultural proximity" with asia BTW. But I suspect it's not a big factor.
(AC stopped flying from YYZ to Italy. All attempts to fly yo BRU have failed. YYC-ZRH is gone.)
Good night all.
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:rolleyes: :confused:
Total census metropolitan areas 20,497.4
Toronto (Ontario) 5,101.6
Montréal (Quebec) 3,574.5
Vancouver (British Columbia) 2,134.3
Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario–Quebec) 1,132.2
Calgary (Alberta) 1,016.6
Edmonton (Alberta) 990.5
Quebec (Quebec) 705.9
www.bechtel.com
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Bechtel is not the answer to a maiden's prayer for labour...they will be pimping to bring the 3rd world labour in as they can make lots of money through that business which they are very experienced in. BTW they were my first employer out of school.
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I said earlier in the thread that YYC/YEG cannot profitably support Direct flts to Asia but then again if CNRL gets its way they will be importing thousands of korean and Chinese workers to help build their $7 billion plant ove rthe next few years. Charters would of course handle that type of travel.
The article below will give you a further view about why Alberta will continue to grow.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040825.walta0825/BNStory/National
Sounds like we need another national energy program so the blue eyed sheiks will not run off with the national wealth :p :D
That some folks live on the other side of a municipal boundary doesn't change which airport they use. So Edmonton itself has approx 700K while the metro region has over 900K, so what? IMHO jakpot's earlier comment about excluding metro pop. totals is unrealistic to do so as both YEG & YYC catchment area bigger than just the city limits.
Fair enough, so Vancouver becomes 3.5million, maybe 4 million if you consider the catchement area south of the border. Toronto becomes even larger.
Even at 1 million or so, YEG and YYC are small region cities that are not overwhelmingly diverse (as YVR, YYZ are). Both currently have very limited cultural/business connection to Japan other than limited seasonal tourism in Banff and beef exports.
I still say economics would is the driver (even if YYC and YEG ever cross 1 million)?
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Thanks for now admitting that odds are Alberta will continue growing for the foreseable future.
My point is that if Alberta demands limited routes to Europe (a traditional destination through business, tourism and immigration), how can it demand the same level to Asia.
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Alberta does not "demand" anything (at least on this side of Red Deer).
But the point remains that Asia is every bit as much a "traditional destination through business, tourism and immigration" as Europe is. On the latter, at least as far as you deal with immigrants recent enough and wealthy enough to retain strong ties with the country of origin. Which is what matters for air travel; for instance, the large fraction of the population of Polish or Ukrainian descent is not a generator of significant market share for AC. In contrast, the Chinese community is.
Well off the top of my head, PDX. PDX used to have DL non-stop service to NRT and that was suspended a few years ago. NW just re-started NRT non-stop service and Portland is smaller than Calgary.
Just an FYI, the total population of OR is 3.55 million vs AB which is 3.2 million. Source: StatsCan and US Census Bureau
:rolleyes: And exactly what does it add to the discussion?
The issue about non-stop service with Japan had long been forgotten in this thread. Why bringing this back up?
Well, can't demand be approximated by those regions that share a history and cultural connection through immigration and business ties.
My point is that if Alberta demands limited routes to Europe (a traditional destination through business, tourism and immigration), how can it demand the same level to Asia.
Please don't take this personally.
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Wow. Mass migration. I guess a third of the population is realising that YYC is a better place. :D So I guess YEA doesn't really need to do any planning. :D
I just needed to capture this. :D
I bet you that "the elevator that never goes down" in fact will. It always does.
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If you want to indulge in motherhood statements, your call.
Point remains, I don't expect Calgary to stop growing any time soon.
Doesn't a scheduled service require the diversified interests of Business, local/expat community, and tourism to dampen volatility effects? Alberta barely has 1 element of these 3 pillars. Doesn't Vancouver/Toronto support daily services with multiple carriers as a result of all 3.
Calgary is a wonderful city (I have been there) but until it becomes more than the regional provincial centre it currently is, (like YXY) it will live of the avails of charters to Japan.
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http://www.edmonton.com/statistics/page.asp?page=84
With a population of just under 938,000 at the time of the 2001 Census of Canada, the Edmonton CMA is the sixth largest metropolitan region in Canada.
Current projections from the City of Edmonton Planning and Development Department are that the population of the Edmonton CMA will be just under 985, 000 at the end of 2003 and the City of Edmonton population will be just under 698, 000.
:D :D :D
That being said direct Asian flts out of either place is not going to make money.
Isn't it strange that Calgary's size and growth rate are such sensitive topics :rolleyes:? 6 pages already :confused: .
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well, It was night here after all @:-) .
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Remember, Calgary is still a very small city. What North American cities population under 900,000 have direct flights to Japan anyway (don't say Richmond)?
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If you consider charter flights, then Calgary does have direct flights to Japan on ANA. The Japanese market really seems to be picking back up in Alberta, as YYC had half a dozen or so charter flights last year from Japan on ANA, whereas this year I believe there were/are at least 15 flights on ANA. Still it doesn't match the UK or German tourists visiting the region with charters now operating year round on Thomas Cook, and LTU starting up service this winter from DUS.
There hasn't been a discussion in a few hours , just my monologue :p ! But you are right, I will leave you now to soldier on.
Point remains, I don't expect Calgary to stop growing any time soon.
There is currently over $45 Billion of new capital work underway or just about underway in the heavy oil patch and gas fields all managed out of Calgary. I see Calgary hitting new higher population numbers every year for the next several probably through 2010 and then possibly leveling off.
Edmonton will experience very good continued growth as well.
I doubt it will reach "equilibrium" let alone "negative growth."
Be realistic, while Calgary is a great city, exactly what would sustain a scheduled non-stop Japan service? Banff? Stampede? Cultural exchanges?
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It's not clear to me that YYC can support a scheduled nonstop to Japan. But then neither is the opposite entirely obvious either. Banff does draw significant traffic from Japan, although mostly tourists. This shrank during the recession in Japan but it's bound to grow again. Still, I have a hard time seeing tourism alone supporting this route.
Overall, Calgary service is dominated by business; this is the key difference with Red Deer North, actually. Since business with Japan is mostly about manufacturing, there should not be a huge volume. But who knows, there is always coal and other resources which Japan is hungry for.
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The area that an airport serves. Cross-border in YVR (Blaine, Bellingham) is very little these days due to the problems of the lines at the Peace Arch etc. Abbotsford is not included, because it has its own airport.
Oh jeez, enough already you win, A380 flights YYC to NRT thrice daily (starting 2005).
Good night all.
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" From 1997 through 2002 in-migration has averaged almost 8,200 persons per year."
This sounds quite reasonable to me. I was concerned that it was quoted at 30K-40K per annum. Of course, this average includes those huge gains in the late nineties when there was some domestic migration.
Question. Is this rate certain to continue as the economy improves in other regions and the migrants decide to return home rather than stay "out west"?
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Correct. But it's seven days/week, not six. And for a year, maybe two, until the recession, 9/11 etc., they had two flights per day. We also have currently two daily flights lo LHR.
I just needed to capture this. :D
You into the sauce again in Brugge? ;)
That some folks live on the other side of a municipal boundary doesn't change which airport they use. So Edmonton itself has approx 700K while the metro region has over 900K, so what? IMHO jakpot's earlier comment about excluding metro pop. totals is unrealistic to do so as both YEG & YYC catchment area bigger than just the city limits.
Edmonton will experience very good continued growth as well.
So how many people does 45 billion capex mean immigrating to Alberta that will use a non-stop Japan service? This should translate into new services to oil cities like Dallas, Caracas and Riyadh not Tokyo?
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Maybe he was counting during the recent, but unsuccessful, Stanley Cup drive. ;)
This is a huge influx, to help with the discussion, what is the source?
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With a cultural proximaty to Europe, LH flies to Calgary 6 times a week and BA doesn't even bother. Why would JAL or ANA?
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BA has wanted to but Air Canada has complained and blocked their entry into both YEG and YYC.
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